People who talk like this seem to be limiting their thought to the slice of humans who are criminals now. Those arguing for lesser or less-costly sentences (e.g., community service instead of jail time)--which also tend to be less scary--assume that those who are calculating are not committing that many crimes. This suggests that the 'harsh' sentences in place in the US are deterring, quite effectively, one significant part of the population--those who calculate. If lesser sentences were imposed, it would seem that we would still not deter many non-calculating individuals, but we would deter fewer calculating people who, e.g., would be willing to clean a highway if caught speeding but who would not risk being sent to jail for speeding.
Policy decisions about sentencing and deterrence need to take into consideration new groups of people who will commit crime under new practices.
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